Green Transition, Resilience and Ongoing Disasters
New reports reveal what green transition may promise Turkey's economy while 'natural' disasters continue
Hello dear Turkey Roaster!
It’s good to be back after a mandatory two-week break (I won’t bore you with the details because we have much to talk about this week).
As soon as summer began, Turkey’s particular vulnerabilities to climate change became apparent once again. A forest fire in Marmaris was followed by floods across western Black Sea provinces, reminding Ankara anew that it should start thinking more seriously about climate adaptation and resilience.
A number of reports and analyses were also launched this week about what the green transition would imply for Turkey’s economy - we’ll talk more about them shortly.
Now, let’s get going!
What’s been cooking:
Hurray for Green Transition: $8bn per year + 300,000 new jobs!
Turkey can hit as much as three birds with one stone, according to a new report by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the International Labor Organization (ILO). By channeling investments towards wind and solar - as opposed to fossil fuels - it could increase its GDP by up to $8billion per year, reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 8 per cent compared to 2019 levels, and create over 300 thousand jobs over the next eight years.
We usually think of climate policies as a painful medicine we’ll have to endure, but ‘this study shows that this is a huge misconception,’ said Louisa Vinton, the UNDP’s resident representative, defining green energy as a win-win scenario.
It is important to note that this analysis was based on a simulation, whereby two scenarios were compared: a ‘business as usual’ scenario vs. a ‘green’ scenario in which all new energy investments are shifted from fossil fuels towards wind and solar. It is underlined that the same level of investment was assumed for both scenarios to ensure neither imposed additional costs on the economy.
Meanwhile, another report released this week by Shura Energy Transition Center provides an idea on just how much money we’re talking about here. According to this new study, Turkey will need some $135billion for energy transition investments until 2030. The annual investments required during this period is twice the amount between 2002 and 2020.
More local news:
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World Bank’s ‘Country Climate and Development Report’ for Turkey underlines that the country’s geographic, climatic and socioeconomic conditions make it particularly susceptible to climate change impacts. Accordingly, Turkey is highly vulnerable to nine out of 10 climate vulnerability dimensions (see below chart for details), while the median for OECD countries is merely two. This should make adaptation and resilience policies a priority for Ankara, the report said.
The World Bank will also loan Turkey some $449,2million in order to ‘strengthen municipal capacity for disaster resilience’ as part of its Türkiye Earthquake, Floods and Wildfires Emergency Reconstruction Project, a recent announcement said. The money will be used towards reconstruction and increased resilience in municipalities affected by disasters over the past two years.
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Speaking of disasters: Another flood hit Turkey’s northwestern Black Sea region less than a year after the devastating torrent that claimed 82 lives last August.
In 2021, the Bozkurt district of Kastamonu province was hit particularly hard, and the government had announced that it would be ‘rehabilitated’ to increase resilience. When heavy precipitation hit the district again this year, causing many houses to be evacuated, a report by the daily BirGün revealed the role of broken promises in repeated disasters.
According to the story, a tender to build a levee on the Ezine Stream that runs through the heart of the district was cancelled due to ‘lack of funds’ merely three weeks before the latest flooding.
Unfortunately, this wasn’t the only ‘repeat disaster’ of the past week. Last August, wildfires that were unstoppable (especially when a country is as unprepared as Turkey was last year) ravaged Turkey’s Mediterranean coasts. The burnt area was historically high: It accounted for some 65% of all forested land burnt since 2012.
Last week, flames erupted once again in the resort town of Marmaris, destroying around 4,000 hectares of forests. While scientists and environmentalists discussed which policies to adopt in order to increase resilience, President Erdoğan preferred to seize the opportunity to start discussing bringing back the death penalty yet again.
There should be an intimidating punishment for burning forests, he said, something not many people would disagree with. But then, he went a step further: If that’s a death sentence, it’s a death sentence.
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Ankara finally announced the decisions taken during the first Climate Council meeting held in late February. The Council had brought together the bureaucracy, civil society and academia, and aimed at drawing up a roadmap on how to reach the country’s net zero target.
Hopes were high ahead of the meeting as environmentalist organizations expected an announcement to phase out coal, but these were not realized. To the contrary, the final text (which is currently unavailable in English) calls on increasing electricity production through natural gas and nuclear.
This might be a good time to mention that Erdogan announced the discovery of an oil reserve in the country’s southern Adana province. The reserve was valued at around $1billion, Erdogan said, adding that eight new oil wells would be opened in the area, bringing the total number to 10. Turkey’s president also reiterated his commitment to continue searching for natural gas in both the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.
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Unknown quantities of cyanide was spilled into the Karasu Stream in Turkey’s northeastern province of Erzincan due to a damaged pipe at a controversial gold mine. As can be seen from the Google Earth image below, the mine is dangerously close to the Euphrates River, the leading water source of the region along with the Tigris River.
We still don’t know the exact amount that was spilled: the company claims it was eight kilograms whereas opposition media reports some 20 tons of cyanide was leaked. Similarly, while Anagold Mining, a joint venture between pro-government Çalık Holding’s Lidya Mining and Colorado-based SSR Mining, alleges that the spill was ‘immediately cleaned’, environmentalists warn that the Euphrates River was contaminated.
If history is any indication, we will never know the truth about either claim (though we are free to make an educated guess). Usually, the company gets away with an unremarkable fine, and since public attention is fleeting, a cloak of silence protects those responsible for environmental crimes. In this case, for instance, Anagold Mining received an administrative fine of some 16,4million TL - slightly less than a million dollars.
In Brief:
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Bad news for y’all getting ready to enjoy your tuna sandwich: At least one micro plastic (MP) particle was found in all 33 canned fish samples analyzed by Turkish scientists as part of a recent study.
MPs are tiny pieces of plastic that are smaller than 5mm long. In this study, the analyzed canned fish belonged to 13 different brands, and polyolefin emerged as the most common polymer type detected. Yellowfin tuna fish in water, and tuna fish in sunflower oil had the highest abundance of MPs. However, MP concentration was similar across different brands and producers, which led scientists to conclude that MP contamination is a problem across the board.
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Three-year-old race horse ‘Dollar Man’ was shot to death after breaking his foot during the 96th Gazi Race, which took place on June 26 after a two-year interlude due to the pandemic.
There’s a lot of controversy surrounding euthanizing race horses due to broken legs. Despite their strength and weight (most weigh around half a ton), race horses have light legs that allow them to run at high speeds. Unlike what we experience when we break a leg, a similar injury practically shatters the bones of these horses. Some people, such as those quoted in this piece at The Guardian, argue that the small chance of success through a painful recovery justifies putting them down.
But doing further research reminded me of the importance of asking the right questions. You get a different picture once you stop asking whether there’s a better treatment than putting them down, and start asking why they end up with broken legs in the first place.
PETA, for instance, argues that thoroughbred race horses are a ‘genetic mistake’. According to this point of view, vulnerable and light legs are not a result of the evolution of horses, but a product of the racing industry which demands them to run faster and faster. The nonprofit suggests that some 10,000 horses are killed each year due to injuries that are a direct outcome of thoroughbred breeding.
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Well, this is all for now! I hope you enjoyed this week’s newsletter.
Surely, this is a work in progress, and I’ll do my best to improve it based on your recommendations! I would love to hear your thoughts: What did you like? What didn’t work for you? What could I have done better? Let me know and I’ll try to keep you better company next week:)
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See you next weekend!